Home Run Derby

For the past few years I've participated in a Home Run Derby competion. It is sort of like fantasy baseball without all the work. You basically pick 15 major league players and count up the homeruns that they accumulate during the year. Whoever's team hits the most wins. There were about 10,000 entries last year, with the top prize being about $10K. Of coarse I came no where near the top prize, or any prize for that matter. But I'm going to play again anyways. Here's a list of the players, and their homerun totals from last year.

Group A - Pick 1

• Adam Dunn, 40
• Ryan Howard, 48
• Alex Rodriguez, 35

Group B - Pick 1

• Carlos Delgado, 38
• Albert Pujols, 37
• Carlos Quentin, 36
• Alfonso Soriano, 29

Group C - Pick 3

• Ryan Braun, 37
• Miguel Cabrera, 37
• Jack Cust, 33
• Jermaine Dye, 34
• Prince Fielder, 34
• Adrian Gonzalez, 36
• Carlos Lee, 28
• Ryan Ludwick, 37
• Carlos Pena, 31
• Manny Ramirez, 37
• Jim Thome, 34

Group D - Select 3

• Pat Burrell, 33
• Jason Giambi, 32
• Mike Jacobs, 32
• Evan Longoria, 27
• David Ortiz, 23
• Hanley Ramirez, 33
• Grady Sizemore, 33
• Mark Teixeira, 33
• Dan Uggla, 32
• Chase Utley, 33
• David Wright, 33

Group E - Select 3

• Jason Bay, 31
• Carlos Beltran, 27
• Lance Berkman, 29
• Jorge Cantu, 29
• Troy Glaus, 27
• Vladimir Guerrero, 27
• Josh Hamilton, 32
• Aubrey Huff, 32
• Aramis Ramirez, 27
• Mark Reynolds, 28
• Kevin Youkillis, 29

Group F - Select 4

• Rick Ankiel, 24
• Adiran Beltre, 25
• Mike Cameron, 25
• Edwin Encarnacion, 26
• JJ Hardy, 24
• Brad Hawpe, 25
• Matt Holiday, 25
• Raul Ibanez, 23
• Kevin Kouzmanoff, 23
• Adam LaRoche, 25
• Brian McCann, 23
• Nate McLouth, 26
• Justin Morneau, 23
• Xavier Nady, 25
• Hunter Pence, 25
• Jhonny Peralta, 23
• Luke Scott, 23
• Geovany Soto, 23
• Nick Swisher, 24
• Marcus Thames, 25
• Joey Votto, 24
• Jayson Werth, 24
• Ty Wigginton, 23

And here are my entries. I'm trying to avoid Cubs players so as not to jinx them, but also because most of the people participating are from Chicago so Cubs and White Sox players get picked a lot more than they probably should. I'm also staying away from Manny, even though I have a feeling he is going to have a huge year. I don't like him, and there's also a good chance that he phones it in for half the season. Ohter that that, I tend to pick guys in the national league more than the American because I'm more familiar with them. The rest is just gut feeling. I tried to analyse everything last year and find people who were due for breakout years, or who had deciptivly bad years the year before. It didn't work out so well, so I just went for gut feelings this time.

Team 1

• Ryan Howard
• Albert Pujols
• Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez
• Evan Longoria, Pat Burrell, Dan Uggla
• Jason Bay, Josh Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero
• JJ Hady, Brad Hawpe, Hunter Pence, Joe Votto

Team 2

• Adam Dunn
• Carlos Quentin
• Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Carlos Lee
• Pat Burrell, Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira
• Josh Hamilton, Carols Beltran, Troy Glaus Aramis Ramirez (Lucky for me I'm a procrastinator and didn't send in the form yet since Glaus got hurt)
• Matt Holiday, JJ Hardy, Mike Cameron, Adam LaRoche

Team 3

• Ryan Howard
• Albert Pujols
• Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun
• Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira, Chase Utley
• Jason Bay, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran
• Hunter Pence, Joey Votto, Justin Morneau, Xavier Nady

Originally posted at blog.pokerwords.com

Home Run Derby

A coworker hooked me up with a rather interesting fantasy sports contest. Some guy has been running a home run derby league for going on 25 years now. The concept is rather simple. Major League players are divided into groups based on last year's home run totals. Pick a number of players from each group. Who ever picks the players with the most total home runs wins. Its $11 per entry and last year the top prize as almost $10,000.

Last year I did ok. I blame my non-winning on Joe Crede getting injured early in the season instead of playing like it was his contract year.

Here's my team, assuming I remember to fill out the form and send it in tomorrow. My picks are in bold. I'm breaking my normal fantasy rule of avoiding Chicago players, but I think they underperformed last year.

I was going to fill out a few sheets, but the core team would end up being the same, so I think I'll just stick with the one this year.


Group A – Pick 1
Prince Fielder - 50
Ryan Howard - 47
Carlos Pena - 46
Alex Rodriguez - 54

Group B - Pick 3
Carlos Beltran - 33
Lance Berkman - 34
Ryan Braun - 34
Miguel Cabrera - 34
Adam Dunn - 40
Matt Holiday - 36
Carlos Lee - 32
David Ortiz - 35
Albert Pujols - 32
Alfonso Soriano - 33
Mark Teixeira - 30
Jim Thome - 35
Chris Young - 32


Group C - Pick 3
Pat Burrell - 30
Josh Fields - 23
Adrian Gonzalez - 30
Ken Griffey - 30
Brad Hawpe - 29
Chipper Jones - 29
Paul Konerko - 31
Justin Morneau - 31
Brandon Phillips - 30
Hanley Ramirez - 29
Jimmy Rollins - 30
Dan Uggla - 31
David Wright - 30


Group D – Pick 3
Adrian Beltre - 26
Barry Bonds - 28
Jack Cust - 26
Jermain Dye - 28
Khalil Green - 27
Vladimir Guerrero - 27
JJ Hardy - 26
Torri Hunter - 28
Andruw Jones - 26
Magglio Ordonez - 28
Aramis Ramirez - 26
Aaron Rowand - 27
Frank Thomas - 26
BJ Upton - 24


Group – Pick 4
Garrett Atkins - 25
Carlos Delgado - 24
Curit Granderson - 23
Jose Guillen - 23
Travis Hafner - 24
Corey Hart - 24
Derrek Lee - 22
Nick Markakis - 23
Victor Marinez - 25
Hideki Matsui - 25
Alex Rios - 24
Gary Sheffield - 25
Grady Sizemore - 24
Nick Swisher - 22
Troy Tulowitzki - 24
Chase Utley - 22
Ty Wiggington - 22
Ryan Zimmerman - 24

[***Edit**]
OK, I lied I filled out two more sheets although I think the first is the best.
Sheet 2
Prince Fielder
Adam Dunn
Albert Pujols
Alfonso Soriano
Brad Hawpe
Justin Morneau
David Wright
Andruw Jones
Magglio Ordonez
Aramis Ramirez
Garrett Atkins
Derrek Lee
Nick Swisher
Troy Tulowitzki

Sheet 3
Ryan Howard
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Lee
Albert Pujols
Pat Burrell
Brandon Phillips
Dan Uggla
JJ Hardy
Torii Hunter
Magglio Ordonez
Garrett Atkins
Derek Lee
Grady Sizemore
Troy Tulowitzki

Originally posted at blog.pokerwords.com

Fantasy Football Draft 2007

I usually start thinking about football, and thus fantasy football around the beginning of June. You know, right around the time when the Cubs are traditionally mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. So imagine my surprise when this year I find that our draft is actually happening with the Cubs still in contention. Who knew it was almost football season? Since I've been focused on baseball all this time, I have spent zero time preparing for this year's draft. Prepping didn't exactly help me last year so I'm probably not missing much. OK, that's not entirely true. I did spend about three minutes to print out a cheat sheet from ESPN, which came in quite handy.


Before I get to the draft I would like to remind everyone to checkout Fantasy Sports Live. Its a fantasy sports site started up by a fellow poker blogger and caters to those of us with short attention spans. Its basically a Fantasy Sports Sit-N-Go where each contest only lasts one day. Its fully legal in the US and does involve real money wagering on your fantasy sports skills. Or lack thereof. Check it out. I've played baseball there for a while and it is much more enjoyable than my full season league. Football should be up and running soon. Use bonus code POKERWORDS or one of the links on this page for a %20 deposit bonus rather than the standard %10.




So now, without further ado, here is how our draft went down. Since I didn't prepare for the predraft its hard to critique everyone else's performance, but I'm going to do it anyway.

Salsiccia Kings
1. (1) LaDainian Tomlinson
2. (20) Maurice Jones-Drew
3. (21) Marvin Harrison
4. (40) Marc Bulger
5. (41) Anquan Boldin
6. (60) Todd Heap
7. (61) San Diego
8. (80) Nate Kaeding
9. (81) Laveranues Coles
10. (100) Tatum Bell
11. (101) L.J. Smith
12. (120) Trent Green

We drafted in the reverse order of our finish last season, and so this year, as in many previous years the Salsiccia Kings are drafting first. Their manager was not present for the draft so he was given the best available player at the time, which means this will be his best team in a long time. Its tough to go wrong with drafting LT #1 so the team should at least be competitive with just him alone. This is the team most likely to star a player on injured reserve, or their bye week, but this year he may actually win anyway.


No Talent Ass Clowns
1. (2) Steven Jackson
2. (19) Ronnie Brown
3. (22) Chad Johnson
4. (39) Randy Moss
5. (42) Donovan McNabb
6. (59) Chris Cooley
7. (62) Jerious Norwood
8. (79) Calvin Johnson
9. (82) Vince Young
10. (99) Philadelphia
11. (102) Dallas Clark
12. (119) Jason Elam

The second draft pick went to our commissioner who has one league championship under his belt. He's had a reasonably solid draft with one of the best RB's in Stevan Jackson and WR's in Chad Johnson. If McNabb stays healthy and Calvin Johnson ends up being as good as some are projected, he could have a real good team.

Chocolate Squirrels
1. (3) Larry Johnson
2. (18) Cedric Benson
3. (23) Torry Holt
4. (38) Donald Driver
5. (43) Jon Kitna
6. (58) Tony Romo
7. (63) Jamal Lewis
8. (78) Darrell Jackson
9. (83) Terry Glenn
10. (98) Pittsburgh
11. (103) Randy McMichael
12. (118) Joe Nedney

I was really hoping the manager of the Chocolate Squirrels would pass on LJ, but alas it was not to be. Stranger things have happened in our league, but it looks like people are starting to do at least a little research before picking say Brian Westbrook with the #1 overall. I don't have much to say on his draft. As a Bears fan I hope Benson does well, and that could end up making or breaking his team. Holt always puts up decent numbers but how old is he now? 50? Kitna should put up some big numbers since the Lions are horrible and will be passing a ton to try to catch up. That's why Kitna was such a good fantasy QB a few years ago with Cincy.

Norwegian Blues
1. (4) Shaun Alexander
2. (17) Steve Smith
3. (24) Brandon Jacobs
4. (37) T.J. Houshmandzadeh
5. (44) Matt Hasselbeck
6. (57) Jeremy Shockey
7. (64) Ahman Green
8. (77) Denver
9. (84) Shayne Graham
10. (97) LaMont Jordan
11. (104) Donte' Stallworth
12. (117) Devin Hester

And we come to my team. I've won this league two of five years so I have high expectations, but I'm not really happy with my draft. I hated having the fourth pick. I was torn between Alexander, Gore, Addai, and Manning and wasn't happy about any of them. I would have taken Gore, but he's hurt and while he should be fine by the start of the season, who knows? I also strongly considered Addai, but was worried he'd split carries. You can't go really go wrong with Manning, but the falloff between him and an average QB isn't nearly as much as that of a top RB and middle of the road. So I got Alexander. At least he's likely to put up a large amount of TDs.

I got Steve Smith as the first receiver on the board. Conventional wisdom might have said to take another RB at that point, but there wasn't anyone left that I felt I had to have and I don't think I missed much by picking Jacobs in the third. Of coarse I know nothing about Jacobs other than the fact that he was the highest projected player remaining when it was my turn.

I try to make a point of spreading out my bye weeks and minimizing players on the same team yet I have drafted two pairs of teammates and four players with byes on week 9. Brilliant.

I think I did good with LaMont Jordan and Ahman Green as my backup RB's. As far as I know they are both starters, and while their teams suck, at least they should be getting the ball as much as any other backup.

And yes I picked up Devon Hester. It was my last pick and the ceiling is way too high to pass up. And I'm a Bears fan.

Drunken Pirates
1. (5) Frank Gore
2. (16) Carson Palmer
3. (25) Clinton Portis
4. (36) Larry Fitzgerald
5. (45) Plaxico Burress
6. (56) New England
7. (65) Robbie Gould
8. (76) Kellen Winslow
9. (85) DeAngelo Williams
10. (96) Joey Galloway
11. (105) Jay Cutler
12. (116) Heath Miller

A few years ago the Drunken Pirates passed on LT, Larry Johnson and Shawn Alexander to take Brian Westbrook with the #1 pick. He did a little better this year. He took Gore in round 1 who I very almost took, then Portis in three who I also strongly considered. I was all set to take Fitzgerald in round four but he beat me to it. He took a kicker a bit early but you can't fault a guy for wanting a Bear on your team, can you? I don't see any significant holes in this year's Pirates lineup.

DADS DYNASTY
1. (6) Peyton Manning
2. (15) Thomas Jones
3. (26) Marques Colston
4. (35) Willis McGahee
5. (46) Chicago
6. (55) Reggie Brown
7. (66) Alge Crumpler
8. (75) Neil Rackers
9. (86) Julius Jones
10. (95) Ben Roethlisberger
11. (106) Vincent Jackson
12. (115) Owen Daniels

It wouldn't be a Dad's Dynasty team without Peyton Manning and bunch of home grown talent. I wonder if he knows Thomas Jones isn't on the Bears anymore. Actually I was disappointed he took Jones because I think he's underrated and would have gladly taken him if he fell to me in round 2. Taking a QB number one left his RB core somewhat depleted, but at least he got the #1 QB in the game.

fighting Danimals
1. (7) Joseph Addai
2. (14) Laurence Maroney
3. (27) Terrell Owens
4. (34) Reggie Wayne
5. (47) Adrian Peterson
6. (54) Philip Rivers
7. (67) Jacksonville
8. (74) Matt Leinart
9. (87) Vernon Davis
10. (94) Chris Chambers
11. (107) Greg Jennings
12. (114) Greg Olsen

Perennial winners of the losers bracket it looks like the Danimals managed to make the playoffs last year. I actually like his picks a lot. I think Addai could have gone fourth and TO and Reggie Wayne make a pretty good group of receivers as long as TO manages to play all year. Adrian Peterson was on just about everyone's sleeper list which, makes him not a sleeper, but I was really hoping he'd fall a few more rounds. He failed to draft a kicker again this year which means he'll have to make a move before the season starts, but that probably isn't a bad thing. Kickers aren't worth much so you might as well lock up another real player until closer to the start of the season and decide who to drop then.

Vikings
1. (8) Willie Parker
2. (13) Reggie Bush
3. (28) Roy Williams
4. (33) Andre Johnson
5. (48) Lee Evans
6. (53) Tony Gonzalez
7. (68) Adam Vinatieri
8. (73) Marion Barber III
9. (88) Braylon Edwards
10. (93) Eli Manning
11. (108) Brett Favre
12. (113) Minnesota

I don't have much to say. Willie Parker was probably the best player available for his #1 pick. As I've mentioned I haven't done much research so I'm not sure how much the Saints plan to use Bush this year, but if they were smart it would be a lot more than they did last year. I have a feeling his fantasy production will fluctuate quite a bit.

Spider Pig
1. (9) Rudi Johnson
2. (12) Brian Westbrook
3. (29) Javon Walker
4. (32) Tom Brady
5. (49) Marshawn Lynch
6. (52) Hines Ward
7. (69) Santana Moss
8. (72) Carnell Williams
9. (89) Mark Clayton
10. (92) Jason Witten
11. (109) Seattle
12. (112) Jason Hanson

Rudi Johnson has been on my team a few times so I'm a Rudi Johnson fan, and Brian Westbrook is a pretty good second round choice, especially since our league gives more points for receptions than most other leagues.

HOOSIER DADDIES
1. (10) Travis Henry
2. (11) Edgerrin James
3. (30) Drew Brees
4. (31) Antonio Gates
5. (50) Baltimore
6. (51) Deion Branch
7. (70) Jeff Wilkins
8. (71) Deuce McAllister
9. (90) Devery Henderson
10. (91) Michael Jenkins
11. (110) Warrick Dunn
12. (111) LenDale White

Depending on who you ask last years champ has won this league two or four times. The manager of the Daddies claims championships in 2000 and 20001 even though the league didn't start until 2002. My guess is that he was in another league with our commissioner and thinks they are somehow related. Maybe they are. I'm still not going to recognize any championship in a season in which I didn't participate.

Championship discrepancies aside the Daddies usually have an unorthodox draft style, but it also seems to be pretty effective. He's probably the team to beat by default. There aren't a lot of great RBs to choose from in the 10th or 11th slot but I hate the Edgerinn James pick. Maybe its because he burned me last year, but he is not a very good back on Arizona. I don't think LT or Larry Johnson could do much in that offense. They get behind big and early and resort to passing a lot. I think Antonio Gates is a great pick. Some people are going to consider themselves lucky to get a point or two out of their TE, but he's going to expect 100 yards + a TD just about every week or so. That can make up for your crappy RB production.



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And that's all I have to say on this year's draft. Would it be too cliche if I asked if you were ready for some football?

Originally posted at blog.pokerwords.com

Fantasy Sports Sit-N-Goes

One of the problems with Fantasy Sports, especially baseball is that through the course of a full season you tend to get bored with it. There's nothing worse than getting off to a horrible start in fantasy baseball and then having to watch your team flounder in last place for three or four months. You probably end up more or less abandoning your team which makes the league less fun and competitive for the remaining players. Even if you are doing well, don't you get tired of checking up on your team daily or weekly, month after month?

Enter Fantasy Sports Live. This brilliant idea, dreamed up by poker blogger Blinders is the short attention span version of traditional fantasy sports. Each contest lasts but one day, so there's none of the hassles of traditional leagues such as maintaining your roster, making sure your players aren't on the DL, checking the waiver wire etc. You just pick your team for the day and go.

Oh, and did I mention the best part? You get to bet on the outcomes. Bet may not be the correct term. You pay an entrance fee for the contest and can win cash prizes. Its very much like a fantasy sports SNG.


From what I understand, this is perfectly legal even in the face of the UIGEA, and they even take deposits from major credit cards and PayPal. Since anti gambling laws have carve outs for horse racing and fantasy sports, sites such as this could be the new craze for people wanting to gamble test their skill online.




Go check it out. Sign up now and get a $10 bonus on your first $100 deposit to try out the site. Use bonus code POKERWORDS and get $10 for a $50 deposit, $20 for $100 or $30 for $300.

Originally posted at blog.pokerwords.com

Fantasy Poker 2007

Full Tilt is running their fantasy poker game again for this year's WSOP. It's kind of a pain to get to. Rather than just going to the website and logging in you have to login to the poker client then go to the cashier, and select "My Promotions" and then goto the fantasy poker promotion.

For just about every event, you select 15 fantasy poker players, 5 in group A, 5 in B and 5 in C. You earn points equal to the players cash winnings in group C, 2x winnings in B and 3x in A. There are prizes for the top fantasy finishers in each event and total for the season, including entrances to freerolls, and FullTilt merchandise. Last year I made it into three of the freerolls and just missed the huge one at the end.

Originally posted at blog.pokerwords.com

Basketball Tax

People say that state lotteries are just a tax on people that can't do math. Well then the NCAA tournament must be a tax on people that don't know anything about basketball. I'm pretty sure that the odds of me winning the Mega Millions are just about the same as me winning an NCAA tournament pool with as few as 8 other participants.

Never the less, every year I pay my taxes and watch in dismay as three of my final four teams are eliminated by the end of the first weekend. I have a bad tendency to let my feelings towards certain schools or conferences affect my judgement in these things. Take this year for instance. I have to pick Illinois to win at least one game. And after that they have SIU. There's no way I can pick the Illini to lose to the lowly Salukis. Who cares if they got a four seed and Illinois barely made the tourney. And then I have to pick them to win the next game because they're playing Kansas and fuck Kansas.

At that point I come to my senses and realize that no matter how much I hate Kansas, and how much Kansas has choked in the Bill Self era, the Illini are still probably no match for the Jayhawks. So I pick Villanova to upset Kansas in round two so the Illini don't have to face them. And that's why I won't ever win a college tourney pool. That and I know almost nothing about college basketball outside of this state. Or in this state for that matter.

If I have time, I think I'm going to do an experiment this year. I'm going to do my normal bracket. Then I'm going to try to do one where I objectively pick the winners. Then I'm going to do one based soley on coin flips, with the exception of the obvious games such as the 16-1, 15-2 match ups. Finally, I'm going to do some other random picker where the odds are weighted based on seeding. Not sure how I'll do that one, but I'll think of something. My guess is that the random weighted bracket will win. You would think that's the one I would choose to put money on, but you would be wrong. Maybe the tournament really is a stupid tax.

I'll try to have my picks done and posted here by the start of the games on Thursday. Feel free to mock them once they are up.

Originally posted at blog.pokerwords.com