Poker Words - A Poker Blog

Mostly a recount of my poker exploits along with a bunch of random other stuff just for fun.

Sunday, June 12, 2005

2005 WSOP Odds

In case you haven’t heard, the 2005 WSOP is going on now, and we are more than a week into the various events.

If you want to see the results as they happen check out these sites.

Looking at the results for event number 2, I see that Scott Fischman came in second place which brings to mind the following question. How many times is ESPN going to mention “The Crew” in the WSOP coverage? They got more than their fair share of coverage last year, and this year they have a more established pro in Fischman.

According to their website, ESPN will be broadcasting for 2 hours a night, on Tuesdays between August 32rd and November 15, which by my count is 26 shows. Plus they have nine shows scheduled for the WSOP Circuit Championship from Juy 19th to August 16th. (See schedule here.)

Anyway, assuming they have 35 shows, I think “The Crew” will be mentioned at least 200 times. I also think they will do at least two of the mini feature segments on them (they called it “the nuts” last year, who knows what they’ll do this year). I would think they can find some more interesting things to do features on but I wouldn’t bet on it. Or maybe they can actually show some poker. Now there’s an idea.

Continuing in the feature segment category, I would predict at least two more with Chris Ferguson throwing cards through things. I wouldn’t be surprised if they even recycle last year’s footage. Last year he had three, two with him throwing cards and one with him demonstrating his card counting ability.

There is also going to be at least one feature on Phil Hellmuth. How can they resist? Nothing says good TV like a whiny arrogant poker player berating his opponents for beating him. I almost wish they wouldn’t film him during his tantrums kind of like how major league baseball doesn’t show the drunken fans that run out onto the field. They’re just looking for attention, stop giving them what they want and maybe they’ll stop acting like idiots.

So the official PokerWords over/under for various events in ESPN’s WSOP television coverage is as follows.

Number of Times The Crew is Mentioned: 200 (By the way I call “not it” on actually having to count the number of crew references.)

Number of segments featuring The Crew: 2.5 (The segment needs to be mostly about the crew, not just have them appear in the segment. For example showing Dutch Boyd’s chip trick skills doesn’t count.)

Number of segments featuring Chris Ferguson: 3.5 (The segment needs to be mostly about him, not just have him appear in the segment.)

Number of segments featuring Chris Ferguson throwing cards at things: 2.5

Number of segments featuring Phil Hellmuth: 1.5 (The segment needs to be mostly about him, not just have him appear in the segment.)

Number of times the term Poker Brat is used to describe Hellmuth: 37

Number of times Hellmuth is shown bitching about his opponents play after losing a hand: 22

Number of segments featuring the Women of Poker: 1.5 (The segment must be about the Women of Poker, not just contain a woman in the segment.

Number of times the phrase “xxxx player only paid $Y” or “xxxx player qualified for this tournament by playing a $Y online satellite” to get into this tournament, or something similar where xxxx is some previously unknown player and $Y is less than 100: 34

Number of times the phrase “This is player xxxx’s first time playing in a live tournament” or something similar is mentioned: 15

Number of Times I want to yell at Norman Chad for his commentary: 284

Anyone else have anything they want to add?

(Note: I reserve the right to change the above odds based on the results of upcoming events, and changes to ESPN’s scheduled coverage.)

(Also Note: I have pulled most of these number straight out of my ass, and they are for entertainment purposes only. I accept zero responsibility for any losses incurred by using these numbers for any sort of wagering type purposes)

(Also Also Note: If you were actually planning on using the above to place a wager that you might have a gambling problem and you should probably seek professional help.)

I wanted to try to put odds on who will win the main event, but with an expected 6000+ fields, and only moderate knowledge of the pros in it, that’s kind of hard. I tried grouping the players, to make is somewhat more manageable. Here’s the list I came up with in order of the likelihood of them winning.

PokerStars Qualifiers. I think they will be sending 10-15% of the entrants, and they have won the last two. If I was a betting man I would put my money here. Wait a second. I am a betting man. Let me try that again. If I was to bet on the WSOP winner, and this option was available, I would take it.

Other Online Qualifier. This represents a huge portion of the field, so you have to give them a decent shot of winning, just based on the number of players alone.

FullTilt Pros. They have about 30 of poker pro’s on their roster, so you would almost have to give them a decent shot at winning it.

Dan Harrington. The guy has made the final table at the last two WSOP. If had to pick any one person, it would be him.

Someone named Nguyen. No final table is complete without one.

Gus Hansen. Seems like no final table is complete without him either.

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