Super Bowl Predictions

A friend of mine complained that the Bears have made the Superbowl and yet I have not provided the world with my expert analysis. There’s a couple of reasons for that. First, the whole neteller arrests and withdrawal from the us market has basically demoralized me in terms of poker. I’m frustrated with the whole situation, and the mere thought of poker has puts me on tilt. Seeing as this blog is theoretically about poker, I haven’t felt like writing anything, Superbowl or not. Then of coarse there’s my history of post season predictions where last year I predicted and easy playoff win for the Bears against the Carolina Steve Smiths, I mean Panthers.

Now that I’ve gone this far, I might as well give you my thoughts.

My biggest concern going into this game is not Rex Grossman or the Bears offense. It’s the defense. The much talked about, Bears D. In the beginning of the year they were so good it was ridiculous. The only way they would give up points was if the Bears offense or special teams gave their opponent great field position, and even then it was tough. They lost Mike Brown and Tommy Harris and had a few other injuries, and they haven’t been the same since. They play a frustrating bend but don’t break style of D, which has caused more than a few ulcers in Chicago land. In pressure situations they’ll give up large chunks of yards, and way too many first downs, before finally making a stop just outside of field goal range. They can’t seem to get a key three and out in any close games.

The Bears offense I’m not concerned about. Rex has been getting better at throwing the ball away instead of into his opponent’s hands, and I’m pretty sure he can do that against Indy’s less than impressive D. Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson have been running at will on opponents in recent weeks, and if there’s one thing the Colts suck at its stopping the run.

As for the Colts, of the final four AFC teams I think they are the team I would most like the Bears to play. Yes, they have Peyton Manning, and used to be able to score at will, but this year, and as recently as two weeks ago, teams have been able to stop their offence. I don’t know if the Bears can keep Indy out of the endzone like Baltimore did, but I do know that the Bears can score more than three field goals. Too many of the Colts games come down to Manning leading a fourth quarter drive to win. He usually converts, but not this time.

I was scared of the Chargers because the Bears have had problems stopping the run, and the Chargers could just give the ball to LT all day. I think the Bears are better than the Patriots, but that wouldn’t stop them Pats from winning as they tend to just outplay their opponents, not matter what the game looks like on paper. And Baltimore’s defense could have single handedly beaten the Bears, much the same way that the Bears D has been known to win games on its own.

So, my prediction….

Bears 34, Colts 20. Jones, and Benson each get a TD, and Grossman passes for two, one to Berrian, and one to the TE Desmond Clark. Manning passes for two TDs, but gets picked off on a key fourth quarter drive.

Originally posted at blog.pokerwords.com